Part 5 of a longer reflection on self-reliance, inner state, and how we relate to reality.
When something doesn’t match
If prediction is the brain’s main way of functioning, then there must be a moment when it fails. A point where something doesn’t match. This is what I understand as a prediction error. A difference between what I expected and what actually happened.
A simple example
At the physical level, it’s easy to see. I grab a pan, expecting it to be cold — but it’s hot. The prediction was wrong. The feedback is immediate. Pain. This kind of error is hard to ignore. So the model changes quickly. Next time, I will be more careful.
It gets more complex
But the higher I go — from movement and perception to thoughts, beliefs, and relationships — the less clear it becomes. What is a prediction error in a conversation? When someone behaves differently than I expected? When something I thought was safe turns out to be difficult?
Emotions as signals
Here, the signal is different. Not physical pain — but emotional experience. Surprise.
Frustration. Anger. Disappointment. Maybe even shame.
I’m starting to see emotions in a different way. Not only as reactions. But as information. A signal that something doesn’t match. That something in my model needs to be updated.
Two possible directions
And here is the key moment. I can say:
“I predicted this wrong.”
Or:
“The world is wrong.”
The easier path
From an energetic point of view, the second option is often easier. I don’t have to change anything. I don’t have to question my model. I can keep my sense of control.
What the brain really wants
This leads me to something uncomfortable: the brain is not necessarily looking for truth. It is trying to minimize error. And one way to minimize error is to avoid seeing it.
Confirming my own model
If I believe something strongly, my mind will look for confirmation. Not a contradiction. This makes the model stable. But not necessarily accurate.
Learning is not automatic
So learning is not just about experiencing errors. It’s about allowing them. Letting the signal reach awareness instead of immediately covering it with explanation.
A simple pause
If I can stop, even for a moment, and ask:
What did I expect? What actually happened? What just broke?
Something changes.
Not outside. Inside the process.
What comes next
This brings me to another question: If error is a signal for change, why do I resist it so often? Why do I stay in the same patterns, even when they clearly don’t work?
Part 6 coming soon.
Pawel Kosinski
AI-assisted translation
You can find all English texts here:
If you want to explore this in your own experience, you can find a simple space for that here:
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