Part 3 of a longer reflection on self-reliance, inner state, and how we relate to reality.
I don’t react to the world
For a long time, I thought I was simply reacting to reality. Something happens — I respond. But the more I look at it, the less true it seems. I wake up already expecting how my day will look. I expect who I will meet. How they might behave. What I will do next.
Even when something unexpected happens — a phone call, a knock on the door, a sudden problem — I’m not reacting from nothing. I’m reacting from a framework of expectations.
A knock means someone is there. A phone call carries information. A problem requires a solution. I may not predict the details, but I predict the meaning.
Prediction comes first
Even the fastest reaction is not pure. It’s a collision between what happened and what I expected to happen.
Sometimes, when something is completely outside my experience, there is a short pause. A moment of “freeze”. As if my brain couldn’t find anything similar.
But this is rare. Most of the time — I am already prepared.
A simple but difficult question
This leads me to something important: do I ever question my own predictions? And more importantly: do I see how they affect my inner state?
Because if my predictions are off, everything starts to shift. I expect danger where there is none — I feel tension, anxiety, fear. I expect safety where it doesn’t exist — I lose focus, I become careless.
What I call “inner state”
When I use the term “inner state”, I mean something broad: emotions, bodily sensations,
intuitions, inner dialogue. I’m not trying to separate them precisely. I’m trying to understand how they work together.
The brain as a prediction machine
At some point, I came across an idea that changed how I see all of this: the brain is not mainly reactive. It is a prediction machine.
It sits inside the skull, with no direct access to reality. It doesn’t see the world “as it is”. It receives signals — from the eyes, ears, skin, balance, and the body.
And based on those signals, it constantly tries to guess: what is happening, and what will happen next.
Predictive coding
One way to describe this is through something called predictive coding.
In simple terms: the brain builds models of the world and predicts what it expects to receive. Then it compares those predictions with actual sensory input.
So I’m not an empty system waiting for input. I’m constantly expecting input. Reaction comes second.
A simple example
If I walk into a wooden church, I don’t expect a brick to fall on my head. My brain has a model: stable structure, no immediate danger.
So I can relax.
But if a brick actually falls — there is a strong prediction error. Something doesn’t match. And the model has to change.
Why prediction matters
The brain wants to be ready. Surprises are costly. They require energy.
They require adjustment. So the brain tries to minimize them.
And this changes everything
If my brain constantly predicts the external world, it must also predict me:
my reactions,
my emotions,
my limits.
Which leads to something important: maybe my inner state is not something that just “happens”. Maybe it is something created in this process of prediction.
What comes next
This changes the question. It’s no longer: what do I feel? But: how does my brain create what I feel?
Part 4 coming soon.
Pawel Kosinski
AI-assisted translation
You can find all English texts here:
If you want to explore this in your own experience, you can find a simple space for that here:
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